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Prediction for CME (2022-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-09-22T07:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21702/-1
CME Note: Seen in the west of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source location is unclear but may be a faint eruption with dimming seen around N10W05 in the proximity of AR 1309. STEREO A EUVI imagery was unavailable due to a data gap.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-09-27T06:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-09-23T01:24Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 227
Longitude (deg): 017W 
Latitude (deg): 17N
Half-angular width (deg): 40

Notes: Source considered most likely to be related to activity in emergent AR3109, but precise lift-off time uncertain. Perhaps related to dimming in AIA211 observed near centre-disc around 22/0520UTC. Early estimate using Lasco C2 and STEREO A COR2, bordering on unphysically slow result.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 108.33 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2022-09-22T17:40Z

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